Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4445 · BNA → TPA
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 9:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.