Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4454 · HRL → HOU
departs 4:52 PM CT · arrives 6:06 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1.2 in of rain forecast at HRL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HRL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,433 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 1.23 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.