Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4494 · SBA → SAN
departs 11:15 AM PT · arrives 12:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SBA that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.