Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4623 · PVD → TPA
departs 12:18 PM ET · arrives 3:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
PVD is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.92 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.