Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4736
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
WN 4736 · LAS → CLE
departs 11:55 AM PT · arrives 6:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at CLE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CLE?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLE (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.