Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4760
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4760 · DEN → SFO
departs 9:26 AM MT · arrives 10:53 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.