Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4869
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
WN 4869 · PHX → DAL
departs 3:26 PM MT · arrives 7:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.