Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 491 · MDW → MCO
departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 9:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.