Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4955
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 4955 · DEN → BDL
departs 3:15 PM MT · arrives 8:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BDL (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.