Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 587 · CUN → AUS
departs 1:42 PM EST · arrives 4:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 12%
Sat 10/10 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at CUN
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
CUN (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.