Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 631
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 631 · SJD → SNA
departs 12:57 PM MST · arrives 3:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 20%
Sat 10/10 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SNA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJD
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJD (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SNA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.