Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8508
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 8508 · SDF → MCO
departs 11:48 AM ET · arrives 1:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.