Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 8511
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 8511 · SFO → LAX
departs 11:39 AM PT · arrives 1:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.