Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 9004 · DAL → AUS
departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.