Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 941
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 941 · MCO → RDU
departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 8:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.88 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.