Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1453
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
XL 1453 · JFK → GYE
departs 1:39 AM ET · arrives 7:05 AM -05
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 10%
Sat 10/10 16%
Sun 10/11 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
15h
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GYE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GYE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GYE?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
JFK is busy at that time
↑
1am departures from JFK are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GYE
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GYE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.