Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 6165 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

YV 6165 · SAV → IAD

departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAV that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

SAV (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 6165 · SAV → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?