Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3460
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 3460 · YYZ → EWR
departs 7:01 PM EDT · arrives 8:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 42%
Thu 10/8 41%
Sat 10/10 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.