Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 3630 · YHZ → EWR
departs 7:14 AM ADT · arrives 8:38 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sun 10/4 11%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 16%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave YHZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YHZ
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
YHZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.