Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4335
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4335 · PHL → SDF
departs 8:44 PM ET · arrives 10:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 12%
Sat 10/10 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.