YX 4343 · BGR → LGA

departs 2:18 PM ET · arrives 4:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

BGR (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4343 · BGR → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?