Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4430
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4430 · BOS → LGA
departs 6:47 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 45%
Thu 10/8 38%
Sat 10/10 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.