Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4492 LANDED 9:11 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 6 Today

YX 4492 · ORD → SDF

took off 7:19 AM CT · landed 9:11 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ 7am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4492 · ORD → SDF

Odds over time