Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4511SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
YX 4511 · ORD → CHA
departs 9:00 PM CT · arrives 11:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 126h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?
22%chance · ±15 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to CHA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.