Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4556
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4556 · YYZ → LGA
departs 3:18 PM EDT · arrives 5:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 35%
Thu 10/8 29%
Sat 10/10 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.