Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4562 LANDED 10:47 AM CT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 6 Today

YX 4562 · IND → ORD

took off 11:12 AM ET · landed 10:47 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

IND (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4562 · IND → ORD

Odds over time