Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4596
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4596 · BWI → ORD
departs 5:58 AM ET · arrives 7:10 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 9%
Thu 10/8 7%
Sat 10/10 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.