YX 4622 · LGA → RIC

departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 12:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4622 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?