Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4623 · YYZ → LGA
departs 12:52 PM EDT · arrives 2:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 32%
Thu 10/8 23%
Sat 10/10 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
LGA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.