Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4745
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4745 · BOS → JFK
departs 5:49 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 37%
Thu 10/8 32%
Sat 10/10 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.