Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5803
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 5803 · LGA → PWM
departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 4:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sun 10/4 27%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Thu 10/8 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.