YX 5806 · MSN → BOS

departs 3:25 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5806 · MSN → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?