Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4894 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

9E 4894 · DTW → CHA

departs 8:31 PM ET · arrives 10:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Arrivals into CHA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CHA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4894 · DTW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?