Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4946 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow

9E 4946 · JFK → CLE

departs 8:51 PM ET · arrives 10:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±5 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CLE at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4946 · JFK → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?