Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4967 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

9E 4967 · AUS → RDU

departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4967 · AUS → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?