Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 649
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
9X 649 · MKK → OGG
departs 10:18 AM HT · arrives 11:15 AM HT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 26%
Sun 10/11 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MKK is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.