Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
9X 821 · MKK → HNL
departs 6:53 PM HT · arrives 7:52 PM HT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7
Sun 10/11 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at MKK that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.