Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 8510
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
9X 8510 · HNL → OGG
departs 2:53 PM HT · arrives 3:49 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±7 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.