Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
9X 854 · LNY → HNL
departs 9:04 AM HT · arrives 10:19 AM HT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 30%
Sun 10/11 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LNY is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.