Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
9X 863 · MKK → HNL
departs 4:06 PM HT · arrives 5:05 PM HT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at HNL that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.