Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2879 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

AA 2879 · MRY → DFW

departs 12:26 PM PT · arrives 5:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ MRY is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0 mi forecast at MRY that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MRY (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2879 · MRY → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?