Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 809 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

AA 809 · TPA → PHL

departs 4:09 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,167 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip1.00 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 809 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?