Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 814 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

AA 814 · SFO → ORD

departs 8:59 AM PT · arrives 3:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 814 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?