AS 267 · HNL → SEA

departs 11:03 AM HT · arrives 7:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.03 in

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 267 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?