AS 50 · ANC → HNL

departs 4:12 PM AKT · arrives 8:36 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.04 in

HNL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 50 · ANC → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?