Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7005 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

AS 7005 · SIT → KTN

departs 8:39 AM AKDT · arrives 9:42 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at KTN more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KTN?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SIT is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at KTN that day

↓ Arrivals into KTN at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from SIT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SIT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

KTN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7005 · SIT → KTN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KTN?