Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 971 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

AS 971 · LGB → OGG

departs 8:16 AM PT · arrives 10:52 AM HT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ 8am departures from LGB are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 971 · LGB → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?