Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

EVA AIR · FLIGHT BR 27 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

BR 27 · SFO → TPE

departs 1:09 AM PT · arrives 5:00 AM CST

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPE?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

TPE (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BR 27 · SFO → TPE

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPE?