Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CARIBBEAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT BW 482
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
BW 482 · POS → MCO
departs 8:28 AM AST · arrives 12:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/7
Sun 10/11 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave POS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
POS is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at POS
Weather at each end
POS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 733 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.