Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CARIBBEAN AIRLINES · FLIGHT BW 485
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
BW 485 · MCO → POS
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM AST
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/7
Sun 10/11 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at POS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at POS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to POS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
3pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at POS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 733 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.64 in
POS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.